August 5th 2009
It's been sometime since I spoke on my own blog. I've expended a fair bit of effort on doing a blog on the Telgraph website and they do have the ability to edit, whereas this is unexpurgated!!!
Time since the last blog on here has been spent firefighting but it does seem as if we're in some sort of extended respite. We've now had three months of positive house price news, but volumes are still almost 75% down on where they were two years ago, and that's a lot. It is a long way back from there.
Things at the moment are interesting with a huge pent up demand for housing from those who actually have the money and wherewithal to get a loan (still very difficult), cheap loans when they do, dwindling supply and low interest rates set to stay for a bit, at least 12 months I reckon and maybe 18 months or more. This price rise has been happening in the better areas and is very fragile though, and I don't see it lasting. There are some very thick people leaping up and down proclaiming the return of the boom times but they must be deranged. How on earth can 0.5% interest rates for at least a year signify anything except a wounded economy. The jury's still out on quite how wounded, but all the background ecnomic factors are terrible.
I must say I thought it would all peter out in the Autumn but the return, perhaps for one year only, of some bonuses and pay in the City might just mean we will see this continue into next Spring, but I see prices falling back after that.
Accidental landlords will be getting rid of tenants in the Autumn and going to the market, existing demand is being soaked up and won't be as strong, and eventually sellers, who believe the press and not their agents, will go to the market and if you add all that up it has the redress the demand/supply imbalance that's driving current price rises surely?
One other interesting thing happening at the moment is the returning of gazumping spurred on and abbetted by HIPs. The packs give a buyer the ability to walk into a solicitors office and pretty much sit down, if the money's there, and exchange on the sopt. This is known as an attended exchange and even if something is under offer, a new buyer can just walk in and do this. Wonder what HMG makes of that?
Still, interesting times, but not all is as it seems.
More soon.